Prediction of lifetime cardiovascular risk and individual lifetime treatment benefit in four European risk regions: geographic recalibration of the LIFE-CVD model

Abstract Background The life expectancy free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals without previous CVD can be estimated with the LIFEtime-perspective CardioVascular Disease (LIFE-CVD) model, as recommended by 2021 ESC prevention guidelines. Our aim was to systematically recalibrate LIFE-CVD model four European risk regions using contemporary and representative registry data. Methods results recalibrated distinct within Europe, aggregate data on age- sex-specific expected non-CVD mortality incidences factor distributions. For external validation, 1,451,077 were included from seven cohorts, 53,721 events 62,902 deaths during follow up. After applying prediction models validation C-indices (figure 1) ranged 0.670 (95% CI 0.650–0.690) 0.787 0.785–0.789). Predicted risks matched observed CPRD With gain CVD-free preventive therapy differed per region, for example a 50-year-old smoking women systolic blood pressure 140mm Hg 0.4 years 10 mm SBP reduction low whereas this would 1.5 very high region 2). Interpretation By taking into account geographical differences incidence, provides more accurate tool lifetime CVD, facilitating shared decision-making options Prevention Guidelines. Funding Acknowledgement Type funding sources: None.